So John McCain has picked Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate. The first question most people asked (after "Who is Sarah Palin?") is why did her pick her. It was actually a fairly shrewd choice for a variety of reasons, most of which have nothing to do with November 2008. Let's take a look.

Come November, one of two things will happen. Either Obama will win or McCain will.

Suppose McCain wins. In 2012, the top democratic contender will likely be Senator Hillary Clinton. She came close to getting the nomination this time, commands great support within the party, and has a strong and loyal base. How can the republicans best neutralize this? By having a woman in a similarly commanding position. Yes, Clinton will remain a compelling figure, but McCain and Palin will already be in office and conservative women could be looking forward to Palin in 2016.

Another possibility, of course, is that McCain will no longer be in office in 2012. I wish no harm on the man, but he would be the oldest person elected to the presidency and the job is stressful in the best of times. In that case, the democrats have to face President Palin, an even more commanding female presence and an incumbent.

Now, suppose Obama wins. In 2012, he will be renominated, leaving Hillary Clinton as a surrogate or ally. The republicans will need someone who can challenge and tap into new blood for the party. Whether Palin can be that person depends on how she performs over the next two months. If she does well, she will be in good shape for a 2012 run. Assuming she is reelected in Alaska, she would then have more executive experience. People would know her and the republican powers-that-be can spend the next few years grooming her to be their standard bearer.

On the other hand, if Palin does not do well, the republicans have kept some of their other major up-and-comers out of a potential debacle. Ridge, Romney, and Pawlenty may all be eyeing 2012 and may wish to sit out any derailment of the McCain train. If Palin fails the test and McCain loses, they all have a shot.

Yes, there is a chance that Palin will help McCain in 2008, although I doubt it will be enough to be pivotal. McCain will win or lose on his own. Adding an unknown player at this late point will not change the game. Instead, the republican powers are thinking about the next match.