Comments on: Over 100,000 Americans Will Die of Swine Flu in the Next 12 Months http://www.jrrl.com/2009/05/16/over-100000-americans-will-die-of-swine-flu-in-the-next-12-months/ personal blog of a geek Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:20:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Ethan http://www.jrrl.com/2009/05/16/over-100000-americans-will-die-of-swine-flu-in-the-next-12-months/comment-page-1/#comment-24181 Ethan Thu, 28 May 2009 06:14:07 +0000 http://www.jrrl.com/?p=132#comment-24181 This virus is all potential. Assuming the US had identified 95% of cases up until may 15th when they began only testing the very sick(+3831) I continued the trend accounting for recovered patients and got 250,000 to 560,000 infected in the US as of today. Im unable to find accurate updated data on hospitalization rates. If we assume all 3831 confirmed cases led to hospitalization thats at its worst 1.5% of the infected, with a death percent of .176% This shows us that h1n1 is mild and that hospital treatment is effective and antivirals and rehydration would be treatment for most so a surge wouldnt be a problem, IV saline bag and tamiflu next... If the virus mutates and follows pandemic trends by mutating into a more lethal virus then we have a problem. If the unspeakable happens and H1N1 and H5N1 combine a modest estimate would be 1,676,748,288 dead. This virus is all potential. Assuming the US had identified 95% of cases up until may 15th when they began only testing the very sick(+3831) I continued the trend accounting for recovered patients and got 250,000 to 560,000 infected in the US as of today. Im unable to find accurate updated data on hospitalization rates. If we assume all 3831 confirmed cases led to hospitalization thats at its worst 1.5% of the infected, with a death percent of .176% This shows us that h1n1 is mild and that hospital treatment is effective and antivirals and rehydration would be treatment for most so a surge wouldnt be a problem, IV saline bag and tamiflu next… If the virus mutates and follows pandemic trends by mutating into a more lethal virus then we have a problem. If the unspeakable happens and H1N1 and H5N1 combine a modest estimate would be 1,676,748,288 dead.

]]> By: Chris Curvey http://www.jrrl.com/2009/05/16/over-100000-americans-will-die-of-swine-flu-in-the-next-12-months/comment-page-1/#comment-23847 Chris Curvey Tue, 19 May 2009 01:18:52 +0000 http://www.jrrl.com/?p=132#comment-23847 Interesting post. I'm fairly well convinced that this story has gotten more play because it's genesis occurred during "sweeps week," but it's worth watching. I *do* think that the publicity surrounding this will lead to a lower R0 rate, because people are being more careful. And I think that if it really took off, people would change their behavior (read: stay home) to decrease their exposure. In fact, I've heard very little flu news from Mexico since they closed everything for five days. (Correct me if I'm wrong about this.) I also know that hospitals would change their admission policies -- canceling elective surgeries for instance. Of course, there are still a limited number of ICU beds, and that is apparently what is needed when this flu gets bad. So, my take is "vigilance but not panic." And I'm making sure that I have enough emergency supplies (cookies and ice cream, mostly) so that I can stay at home for a few days. Interesting post. I'm fairly well convinced that this story has gotten more play because it's genesis occurred during "sweeps week," but it's worth watching.

I *do* think that the publicity surrounding this will lead to a lower R0 rate, because people are being more careful. And I think that if it really took off, people would change their behavior (read: stay home) to decrease their exposure. In fact, I've heard very little flu news from Mexico since they closed everything for five days. (Correct me if I'm wrong about this.)

I also know that hospitals would change their admission policies — canceling elective surgeries for instance. Of course, there are still a limited number of ICU beds, and that is apparently what is needed when this flu gets bad.

So, my take is "vigilance but not panic." And I'm making sure that I have enough emergency supplies (cookies and ice cream, mostly) so that I can stay at home for a few days.

]]> By: Sue Derkins http://www.jrrl.com/2009/05/16/over-100000-americans-will-die-of-swine-flu-in-the-next-12-months/comment-page-1/#comment-23755 Sue Derkins Sun, 17 May 2009 04:28:33 +0000 http://www.jrrl.com/?p=132#comment-23755 I too hope you´re wrong, but the whole train of numbers seem awfully solid. I too hope you´re wrong, but the whole train of numbers seem awfully solid.

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